Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 8.426951 9.912393 11.546115 13.471213 15.672308 18.104977 20.991488
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.088567 8.077800 10.496728 13.630816 17.557487 22.285836 28.378476
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 4.451382 6.577265 9.401540 13.371901 18.743152 25.682159 35.235561
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.260817 5.320118 8.284609 12.765171 19.244849 28.133038 41.068716
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.474768 4.423967 7.442497 12.309281 19.770981 30.548606 46.991286
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.017717 3.915285 7.050374 12.397920 21.017962 34.024209 54.663733
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.622301 3.409588 6.552120 12.205884 21.755691 36.756079 61.429899
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.438371 3.237303 6.571860 12.844758 23.857481 41.733490 72.004073
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.238145 2.984736 6.396483 13.101318 25.320961 45.791083 81.425984
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.050164 2.711462 6.129295 13.139117 26.384716 49.252973 90.121670
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.895352 2.472088 5.882691 13.168880 27.414982 52.715335 99.047993
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.839600 2.448159 6.071040 14.066604 30.127216 59.288834 113.718231
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.755901 2.342761 6.080397 14.628886 32.311549 65.195673 127.839838
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.679982 2.239979 6.080823 15.177930 34.539432 71.385775 142.966206
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.573646 2.025832 5.784659 15.042049 35.375998 75.065896 153.837201
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.461234 1.759292 5.308251 14.425798 35.140382 76.675945 160.992044
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.375196 1.544366 4.916466 13.939865 35.112341 78.661927 168.964633
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.326279 1.434499 4.780330 14.047338 36.387088 83.322575 182.372217
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.274132 1.295005 4.532809 13.836398 36.914604 86.493920 193.062882
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.256765 1.278723 4.638240 14.550688 39.646979 94.422530 213.701448
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.229553 1.214471 4.586621 14.837423 41.390202 100.374581 230.681901
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.199973 1.129391 4.452869 14.879801 42.545560 105.144657 245.526862
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.174236 1.050700 4.322981 14.913082 43.678591 109.940185 260.705183